Prime Minister Narendra Modi's New Year's resolution appears to be to conquer South India. He began his marathon pre-poll tours on the second day of this year in Tamil Nadu, a state that has traditionally rejected his party. Since then he has focused single-mindedly on the southern states.
During his first domestic visit of the year, he visited Lakshadweep and Kerala (January 2 and 3, 2024) apart from Tamil Nadu. A few weeks later, he was in the south again: this time in Andhra Pradesh and Kerala (16 and 17 January); A few days later he returned to Tamil Nadu during his three-state tour (Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu) (19–21 January); And then, in late February, Mr Modi flew to Kerala and then Tamil Nadu (February 27-28).
The first week of March saw him once again tour Tamil Nadu and Telangana (4–6 March), followed less than ten days later by another tour of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana and Karnataka (15–16 March).
In the period between the 2019 May Lok Sabha elections and the end of February this year, Mr Modi has made 14 visits to Tamil Nadu, 13 to Telangana, 11 to Kerala, five to Andhra Pradesh, one to Lakshadweep and 19 to Karnataka. The frequency of visits indicates clear intent.
The south is key to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ambition of 370-plus seats for the 2024 parliamentary elections. The South, with 132 seats, accounts for about 24 percent of the total Lok Sabha seats. North, Central and West together have 269 seats or about 49 percent of the Lok Sabha. In the 2019 parliamentary elections, 68 percent of the BJP's seats came from these regions, while only nine percent came from the South.
Given that there is little scope for a large number of additional BJP seats in the East (except West Bengal) and the Northeast, Mr Modi needs to reward the South if he is to come close to a landslide victory at the all-India level. .
Unfortunately, contesting elections in the South remains difficult. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP had lost badly in the South. Of the five states in the south, the party won zero seats in Tamil Nadu (39 seats), Andhra Pradesh (25 seats) and Kerala (20 seats). In Telangana, BJP got only four out of 17 seats but in Karnataka it won 25 out of 28 seats. It lost single seats in the three southern union territories of Puducherry, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Without Karnataka, the South would have been completely lost to the BJP.
The question now is, has the scenario changed dramatically for the BJP in the South? Traditionally, the BJP has not been able to make much headway in southern states where regional parties or alliances are strong. Thus Tamil Nadu with the DMK-AIADMK duo, Kerala with the UDF-LDF and Andhra Pradesh with the YSR Congress-Telugu Desam combination have proved unbreakable. Karnataka has been somewhat of an outsider, with local interests represented not by regional actors but by national parties, currently the BJP and the Congress – and to a lesser extent the Janata Dal (Secular). In Telangana, it is the Congress that has managed to emerge as the first party as a “national” alternative to the BRS, which despite its national pretensions is essentially a state-level entity.
Mr Modi is trying to gain acceptance in the south by projecting the development mantra and promoting the notion of a common national ethos. These are not bad goals in themselves, but they do not diminish the fear of Mr. Modi being a staunchly North India-centric politician with a pro-Hindi bias that works against people in the southern parts. By all indications, Mr Modi has not yet been able to establish a strong emotional connect with the South.
Mr Modi's reach also needs to be strengthened by the grassroots network of party workers, which is evident in Karnataka but absent in most other southern states.
Electoral alliances may compensate for some of the organizational deficiencies but this is not happening in any significant way except in Andhra Pradesh, where the BJP once again defeated N. Has formed an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu led TDP. In Tamil Nadu, Mr Modi met highly outspoken former police officer K. Has achieved a success as Annamalai, which has enthralled a large section of young Tamils.
Southern leaders have accepted Mr Modi's challenge and promoted an alternative agenda that focuses on northern dominance and discrimination by the Modi government. There are many genuine concerns here, and Southern leadership has decided to express and manipulate them to their advantage.
For example, in Kerala, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan reportedly blamed the Modi government for withholding development funds. Kerala's demands were supported by the Karnataka and Tamil Nadu leadership. However, these southern demands are old and nothing in the political language of non-BJP southern leaders points to new directions. Mr Modi, on the other hand, promises change.
Mr Modi is not playing the communal card but the nationalist card in the South.
Whether it will work or not is anyone's guess. However, most observers believe that although the BJP will not be able to dramatically increase its seats in the South, it will at least do better than before in terms of vote share.
It is very likely that, unlike the previous Lok Sabha elections, this time the BJP will gain some or more seats in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In Andhra Pradesh, where the ruling Jagan Mohan Reddy government is facing headwinds, Mr Modi's alliance with TDP is sure to yield seats for the first time in the state. BJP's vote and seat share is also certain to increase in Telangana, whereas in Karnataka, like before, BJP is expected to get wholehearted support.
While it is impossible to predict the exact numbers, the overall surge will certainly be a symbolic boost for Mr Modi as even a partial victory in the southern states could be crippling if it does not break the perception that his charisma is primarily felt in the Hindi belt and some Limited to parts. Western India.